Ambassador Jack Matlock:

It seems to me that recognition of the two breakaway republics represent Putin’s current aim. That, plus negotiations that may induce the US to remove missile defense installations from EE. (This is his real sore point, and one that would be rational to meet.) …

I could not and cannot imagine that Putin would be so stupid as to invade Ukraine, bomb its cities, etc., though obviously Russia has the capability, even without any exercises on the border. The US also has the capability of attacking every country in the world without warning, so one must distinguish between capability and intent.

Since Putin is quite aware of our intelligence capabilities, he is quite aware that we will be watching and listening. I can imagine the hilarious laughter of Putin’s inner circle every time some useful idiot proclaimed that Russia would be attacking any time now and that we would do crushing sanctions if Russia did – but only if it did!

Zelensky’s steadfast refusal to implement Minsk II gives Putin a dandy excuse to say that this left him no alternative to recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk entities. He is a judo master, whatever else one might say.